Tuesday, December 23, 2003

酒店预订 机票预订 旅游�务 - �程旅行网

Bubble Bubble, Toil and Trouble

What a way to open up the IPO market again. CTrip, China's Expedia, went public and the punters ate it up. Stock price doubled immediately...when was the last time we saw that? Transmeta? The difference perhaps is the nature of companies accessing public markets now. A cursory glance at the summary numbers show that CTrip is profitable with great looking margins. The multiples still cause vertigo, though at least they are multiples of EARNINGS. The markets may go up or down but good business will thrive. From an investor standpoint, with the right time horizon, there are fewer arguments for not investing in China than investing.

I remember reading an article in the mid 90's talking about the fallacy of overseas direct investors dreaming of capitalizing on the 2.6 billion armpits in China that need deodorant. It looks less fallacious by the day.

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